The Coming Collapse of China
Gordon G. Chang (Random House, New York, 2001)

Many experts predict that the People’s Republic of China (China) is poised to emerge as the next great economic and military superpower within the next few decades.  Perhaps China will even be powerful enough to challenge the global dominance of the United States, some forecast.   There are certainly plenty of assessments that support these assertions and the growing power and dynamic economic growth of China is the subject of  a growing number articles in respected journals.  Gordon Chang proposes a very different view in The Coming Collapse of China.  The basic premise of his book is found in the Foreword, “On paper, China looks powerful and dynamic . . . [but] in reality, the Middle Kingdom is a paper dragon.”  He argues that China suffers from structural deficiencies, ideological inconsistencies, and cultural fissures that will ultimately shatter the country, perhaps in more dramatic fashion that the recent collapse of the USSR.  And Mr. Chang sees this happening sooner rather than later.  For example, he argues that China’s successful pursuit of WTO membership will ultimately “shake China to its foundations.”   According to Mr. Chang, getting what you wish for might be the worst possible outcome for China.

            The book is a collection of pseudo-case studies that are primarily anecdotal in nature with each chapter addressing one of China’s looming problems.  Mr. Chang first predicts the imminent collapse of China’s Communist Party.  After briefly tracing the history of the party he postulates a growing divide between the needs and desires of the masses and the party leadership.  Disaster is the likely result, he predicts. Another chapter examines attempts to disperse and discredit the Falun Gong, the Democracy Party, and a growing number of traditional religious groups.  His litany of concerns also includes what he characterizes as a bankrupt system of state enterprises, an insolvent and irreparable state banking system, problems with the developing private sector, fraud and corruption in the securities markets, and an antagonized Buddhist population (primarily because of draconian policies toward Tibet and the spiritual leader of Buddhism, the Dali Lama).  Mr. Chang observes that China’s greatest crisis may be sparked by the emerging information age.  Although “China has a modern veneer,”  Mr. Chang concludes that “Mao’s system remains firmly in place.”  He asserts that the needed restructuring of the economy, industry and Chinese society will be so massive and painful that the existing political system cannot possibly adapt or survive.

            Whether or not you find Mr. Chang’s arguments convincing, I think you will find Collapse to be a provocative and mentally stimulating discussion that runs counter to much of today’s common wisdom regarding this enormous and important country.  Although only time will tell us if Mr. Chang has hit the mark, this book will likely stimulate a spirited debate among China watchers. 

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Reviewed by

Ron Pettus

SCC History
 

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